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Mathematical Methods and Models in Economic Planning, Management and Budgeting

Mathematical Methods and Models in Economic Planning, Management and Budgeting

This book describes a system of mathematical models and methods that can be used to analyze real economic and managerial decisions and to improve their effectiveness. Application areas include: management of development and operation budgets, assessment and management of economic systems using an energy entropy approach, equation of exchange rates and forecasting foreign exchange operations etc.

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CONTENTS

Preface

 

1. MATHEMATICAL METHODS OF BUDGET MODELING ......................................1

1.1 Budget as an Object of modeling and management........................................... 2

1.1.1 Budget Structure and Contents................................................................... 2

1.1.2 Main Principles of Budget Formation............................................................ 3

1.2 Budget Models............................................................................................ 6

1.2.1 Models of Knowledge Representation and Budget Functioning.......................... 6

1.2.2 Semantic Model of Budget Representation....................................... ............10

1.2.2.1 Object domain model............................................................................ 10

1.2.2.2 A budget structure graph..................................................................... 14

1.2.2.3 A graph representing budget values....................................................... 14

1.2.2.4 An example of the semantic model.......................................................... 17

1.2.3 Frame-Based Model of Budget Knowledge Representation.............................. 18

1.2.3.1 Budget model..................................................................................... 18

1.2.3.2 Budget Item model.............................................................................. 20

1.2.3.3 An example of the frame-based model................................. ....................21

1.3 Mathematical Budget Models....................................................................... 23

1.3.1 Static Mathematical Budget Model............................................................. 24

1.3.2 Mathematical Model of Interaction of Income and Expenditure Items ...............28

1.3.3 Model of Budget Sensitivity...................................................................... 32

References.................................................................................................... 37

 

2. METHODS AND MATHEMATICAL MODELS OF BUDGET
MANAGEMENT
............................................................................................ 39

2.1 Current Trends in Budgeting..................................................................... 39

2.2. Current State of Budget Control Methods and Mathematical Models................. 41

2.3. General Concept of the Programmable Method of Budget Mechanism Control ....43

2.3.1 General Statement of the Problem of Budget Mechanism Control................... 43

2.3.2 Cybernetic Approach to the Description of Budget Mechanism...................... 44

2.3.3 System Approach to the Mathematical Model of Budget Mechanism................ 47

2.4 Mathematical Models of Budget Expenditure................................................. 50

2.4.1 Construction of Program Movements for Budget Expenditure........................ 50

2.4.2 A Model of Program Control ofExpenditure Budget Part................................ 52

2.4.3 Model of Management Adjustment........................................................... 57

2.4.4 Description of Algorithms of Basic Processes............................................. 59

2.5 Mathematical Models of Budget Revenue Part................................................ 61

2.5.1 Basic Provisions Describing Interactions of Budget Items............................. 61

2.5.2 Learning Elements of Budget System....................................................... 62

2.5.3 Model of Correction of Budget Revenue Forecast........................................ 65

2.6 Model of Information System for Program Budget Control .............................. 66

References.................................................................................................. 69

 

 

3. ENERGY-ENTROPIC METHODS IN ASSESSMENT AND CONTROL
OF ECONOMIC SYSTEMS
............................................................................ 73

3.1 arguments in Favor of Application of the Thermodynamic Approach
to economic systems......................................................................................73

3.2 Energy-Entropy Model for Assessment of Economic System Management .........80

3.3 Energy-Entropy Approach as the Basis of System Estimation of Production
Management Quality..................................................................................... 83

3.3.1 United Measuring System of Energy Resources......................................... 83

3.3.2 Methods Used to Estimate Power Consumption (Efficiency of Power
   Resources Usage) at the Enterprise Level...................................................... 85

3.3.3 Entropic Evaluation of Production Efficiency.............................................. 86

3.3.4 Usage of Energy-Saving Criterion to Assess Production Control Quality...........92

3.3.4.1 A thermodynamic aqpproach to constructing systems controlling
production processes.................................................................................... 92

3.3.4.2 Comparison of Production Processes in Terms of Energy-Entropy ..............95

References.................................................................................................. 97

 

4. CURRENCY TRADING METHODS AND MATHEMATICAL
MODELS
.....................................................................................................99

4.1 Currency Market Research and Management............................................. ...99

4.2 Mathematical Models of Equilibrium Exchange Rates................................... 102

4.2.1 Model Development and Analysis.......................................................... 102

4.2.2 Equilibrium Exchange Rate: Statement of the Problem and Ways to
Solve It .................................................................................................... 104

4.2.3 Optimal Adjustment of Currency Exchange Rates..................................... 106

4.2.4 Building a Balanced Directed Graph....................................................... 108

4.2.5 Equilibrium Exchange Rates: Problem-Solving Procedures......................... 111

4.2.5.1 Statement of the assignment problem................................................. 111

4.2.5.2 Assignment problem as a linear programming problem.......................... 112

4.2.5.3 Assignment problem as a transportation problem.................................. 112

4.2.6 Experimental Study of the Model of Equilibrium ...................................... 115

4.3 Mathematical Projection Models for Currency Transactions........................... 119

4.3.1 Forecast problem of risk minimization.................................................... 119

4.3.2 A Collocation Model for Forecasting Operations on the Currency
   Market .................................................................................................. 121

4.3.2.1 Background of the collocation model .................................................. 121

4.3.2.2 Development of mathematical model for forecasting exchange rate .......... 122

4.4 Information Decision Support Systems in Currency Operations..................... 125

4.4.1 Development of Information Model for Decision Support System in
   Currency Exchange Operations................................................................... 125

4.4.2 IS Software ....................................................................................... 127

References..................................................................................................129

 

 

5. METHODS AND MATHEMATICAL MODELS OF INNOVATION
PROJECT APPRAISAL
................................................................................ 131

5.1 Current Status of Innovation Project Review and Appraisal............................ 131

5.1.1 Innovation Project as a Subject of Analysis and Appraisal.......................... 131

5.1.2 Existing Methods and Tools of Evaluating Innovation Projects..................... 132

5.2 Development of Methods and Models for Assessing Innovativeness

and Competitiveness of Innovative Projects...................................................... 138

5.2.1 The Essence of Innovation and Competitiveness....................................... 138

5.2.2 Innovativeness Criteria for Innovative Projects ........................................ 139

5.2.3 Competitiveness Criteria for Innovative Projects....................................... 140

5.2.4 Method and Graphic Model for Assessing Innovativeness and

Competitiveness of Innovative Projects..................................................... ......145

5.3 Development of Methods and Models for Assessing Feasibility and

Cost-Effectiveness of Innovative Projects........................................................ 157

5.3.1 Basic Steps in Designing an Innovative Project........................................ 157

5.3.2 Basic Life Cycles of Innovation Projects.................................................. 160

5.3.3 The Method and Graphic Model for Assessing Feasibility and Economic
   Effects of Innovation Projects..................................................................... 166

5.3.4 Method and Graphic Model for Innovation Project Evaluation...................... 175

5.3.5 Research into the Methods and Models on Innovation

Project Evaluation....................................................................................... 176

5.4 Development of an Information System of Innovation Project
examination............................................................................................... 181

5.4.1 Decision Support Systems................................................................... 181

5.4.2 DSS Functional Model Development................................................ .......182

5.4.3 Development of Information Model of Innovation Project Evaluation..............185

References ................................................................................................192

 

6. MATHEMATICAL METHODS FOR MAKING INVESTMENT

DECISIONS.............................................................................................. 195

6.1 Basic Concepts of the Risk Theory of an Investment Project.......................... 196

6.2 Investment Decisions: Project Choice and Risk management......................... 202

6.2.1 Methods Supporting Decision-Making..................................................... 202

6.2.2 Methods Used to Assign the Utility Function Values.................................. 203

6.2.3 Search for the Best Pareto Point............................................................ 207

6.2.4 Convolutions of Estimation Criteria......................................................... 211

6.2.5 Criteria Used to Choose Optimal Solution................................................ 213

6.2.6 Choosing a Group Solution on the Basis of Multicriterion Estimation ..........  214

6.3. Assessment of Investment project in the Multicriterion Context .............. .....215

6.3.1 The Hierarchy-Analysis Method as a Synthesis of Quantitatively
     Measurable Expert Information .................................................................215

6.3.2 Assessment of Investment Project by Complex Criteria.............................. 219

6.4 Probabilistic Approach to Quantitative Risk Assessment............................... 224

6.4.1 Simulation Modeling of Investment Risks................................................ 226

6.5 Quantitative Risk Analysis Based on the Methods of Fuzzy Mathematics. .........228

6.6 Information Support for the Investment Project Analysis.............................. 240

6.6.1 Filtration of Investment Projects........................................................... 242

6.7 Examples of Investment Decision-Making................................................ ..246

6.7.1 Assessment of Investment Project Variants....................................... ......246

6.7.1.1 Problem formalization........................................................... ............247

6.7.1.2 Creation of information database.......................................... ..............250

6.7.1.3 A computer experiment.................................................................... 252

6.7.1.4 Quantitative risk assessment.................................................. ..........256

6.7.2 Comparative Assessment of Business Plans in Terms of Risk.......... ...........258

References................................................................................................ 262

 

7 MULTI-OBJECTIVE STOCHASTIC MODELS FOR MAKING DECISIONS ON RESOURCE ALLOCATION............................................................................................ 265

7.1 Applicability of multiple criteria optimization methods ............................ .....266

7.2 The decision-making problem of resource allocation in terms

of utility theory........................................................................................... 267

     7.2.1 Classical principles of choosing alternative solutions............................ 267

7.2.2 Aggregation of preferences in the course of decision-making .................... 268

     7.2.3 Optimality of making decisions on resource allocation.......................... 270

7.2.4 Principles of choosing decisions on resource allocation

combining classical choice principles......................................................... ....271

7.3 Formulation and convolution of criteria in monocriterial

     decision-making models.......................................................................... 274

7.4 Single-stage stochastic models for limited resource allocation

with probabilistic constraints........................................................................ 279

7.5 Multi-stage stochastic models of limited resource allocation

with probabilistic constraints  ...................................................................... 282

7.6 Use of the combined policy model for making decisions

on resource allocation.................................................................................. 285

     7.6.1 Allocation of maintenance resources by Teplocentral Public Enterprise ....285

     7.6.2 Combinationof policies of resource allocation

in  the investment management ..................................................................... 289

References.................................................................................................. 293

 

8 MATHEMATICAL METHODS AND MODELS FOR MONITORING

OF GOVERNMENT PROGRAMS.............................................................. .......295

8.1 Government Program as a Targeted System with Program Management........... 296

     8.1.1 Classification and stages of implementation of government programs ...... 296

     8.1.2 Aims and Tasks of Monitoring of Government Programs ................. .......297

8.2 Government Program in terms of the System Theory and

General Management Theory ......................................................................... 299

8.3 Information and Model Representation of Government Programs and

Methods of Monitoring of Their Implementation ........................................... .....301

     8.3.1 Formalization of Representation of the Government Program

     as a Hierarchical  Tree ............................................................................ 301

     8.3.2 A Model evaluating the state of the top of the GP tree ........................... 302

     8.3.3 A Task of Evaluation of the Process Completion Time at the

     Top of the PHP Tree ................................................................................ 304

     8.3.4 A Production Model of Assessment of the GP Status and

     the Degree of Objective Achievement ......................................................... 305

     8.3.5 The Task of Rapid Reallocation of Funds ............................................ 309

     8.3.6 The Task of Optimization of Network Management Model for

     Construction Works in Fuzzy Environment based on the “Time-Cost”

     Criterion ............................................................................................... 311

8.4 Methods and Models for Evaluation of GP Implementation.............................. 314

     8.4.1 Approaches to the Evaluation of Implementation

     of Government Programs ......................................................................... 314

     8.4.2 Fuzzy Cognitive Model of Risk Assessment of GP Implementation .............316

References ................................................................................................. 324

 

9 METHODOLOGY FOR IDENTIFICATION OF COMPETITIVE

INDUSTRIAL CLUSTERS............................................................................. 327

9.1 Cluster Analysis of Kazakhstani Regions .................................................... 328

9.2 Methods of Identification of Competitive Industrial Clusters .......................... .338

References ..................................................................................................348

Conclusion…………………………………………………………………………....................................351         

About the Author……………………………………………………………………................................355

 

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